In the framework of the ROADMAP2 project, a series of Webinars will be held with international experts on Disaster Risk Management (DRM) issues, with the objective of discussing relevant topics on the management of various phases of risks to find good practices.
The third webinar, entitled “Practices of Scenario Analysis in Disaster Risk Management planning” was held on 7th November 2024, 10.00-12.00 CET.
In the context of the complex nature of modern disasters, anticipating and preparing for emerging risks requires a comprehensive risk assessment involving foresight techniques. Often setting the foundations for scenario-building, foresight techniques such as megatrend analysis, horizon-scanning or visioning allow for early identification of current and new risks and challenges and support the undertaking of adaptive, preventative or preparedness action for impending disruptive events (European Commission, 2021). The 2023 Union Disaster Resilience Goals first goal ‘Anticipate’ emphasises the need to improve the EU and Members States’ capability in risk assessment, anticipation, and disaster risk management planning in complex disaster risks. The regulatory frameworks and principles for to determine how multiple drivers of longer-term futures are taken into consideration in risk analyses in disaster management context are under-developed, though.

The ROADMAP2 3rd webinar aims to provide a forum for exchanging and assessing Disaster Risk Management and civil protection actors’ practices using scenario analysis techniques. The webinar is more specifically explore the following questions:
1. What scenario analysis practices are used by disaster risk management and civil protection actors?
2. What has made these scenario practices particularly useful in anticipating and mitigating disaster risks?
3. What are the Pros and cons of different strategies of Scenario analysis (e.g. qualitative and quantitative approaches)?

To this end, lectures by various experts are planned, in particular:

• Janise Rodgers (GeoHazards International) – Advancing Scenario Practice to Build Resilience to Natural Hazards, Geohazards International.
• Maria Polese (CI3R) – Multi-risk scenario building and assessment.
• Kati Orru (University of Tartu) – Application of multi-risk scenarios in local exercises (Estonia).
• Claudia Morsut (University of Stavanger) – Application of multi-risk scenarios in local exercises (Norway).
• Domingos Xavier Viegas (ADAI) – Application of multi-risk scenarios in local exercises (Portugal).

See the detailed agenda here.
View the webinar recording here.